The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) executive director Graham Hopwood made the remark after it emerged that most Swapo senior leaders had hinted a desire to stand again for nomination.
The oldest ruling party parliamentarians are Nickey Iyambo (77), Ben Amathila (75), Theo-Ben Gurirab (75), Peter Katjavivi (72), Hage Geingob (72), Nangolo Mbumba (72), Nahas Angula (70) and Minister of Information and Communication Technology Joel Kaapanda (68).
Besides Geingob and Mbumba, who are assured of nomination to the party list because of their positions as Swapo vice president and secretary general, other elders will have to scramble for positions.
The cake for Swapo men in leadership will be smaller this time since the party wants to fully implement the gender equality policy, which compels the party to have a 50/50 gender representation.
Hopwood said the best hope for creating space for younger politicians is to persuade some of the older politicians to retire because their continued stay has created a backlog in the natural progression in the party.
“This will not be easy as Geingob, himself 72, is hardly in a strong position to persuade his age mates to stand down,” he said. “If some do not bow out this time, Namibia is in danger of becoming a gerontocracy – a country run by old men and a few old women with only a scattering of young people involved.”
This he said, could lead to the political establishment becoming out of touch as Namibian demographics indicate that the youth dominate the population.
“At the moment, it looks like young people will miss out as the SPYL (Swapo Party Youth League) is currently marginalised within the party’s power structures. Therefore, the leading figures in the youth league are not bound to be on the party list,” Hopwood said.
The party’s oldest member of Parliament, the Minister of Veterans’ Affairs, Nickey Iyambo, who turns 78 this year, did not rule himself out of the electoral college race.
“My stand in the party is decided by the people. It’s up to the people to decide. I am a servant of the people,” said Iyambo, a medical doctor by profession, who was the first minister of health in an independent Namibia in 1990.
Swapo backbencher Amathila, who turns 78 this year, said he has not yet decided whether to stand or not. “In fact, I did not think about it.”
Amathila was appointed the country’s first trade minister in 1990 and, later took over the information portfolio in 1993. He retired from the National Assembly (NA) in 2007, but made himself available for a parliament once again in 2009.
Speaker of the National Assembly Theo-Ben Gurirab is the third oldest politician in the NA. At 75, Gurirab said he will stand because he still has so much to offer nationally and internationally.
He dismissed, as rubbish, claims that the country might be turned into a state governed by old people saying elections at the electoral college will be determined by individual qualities such as what a person brings to the party.
The Usakos-born politician has also served as Prime Minister from 2002 to 2005 and as foreign minister from 1990 to 2002.
Swapo’s chief whip Peter Katjavivi, who turns 73 in May, could not confirm nor deny that he is seeking to stand. He said: “I don’t think there is a particular deadline for someone to say whether he will stand or not.”
Katjavivi was the founding vice-chancellor of the University of Namibia until he was given a diplomatic posting in 2003. He has also served as the National Planning Commission director general.
Defence Minister Nahas Angula, who is the ruling party’s seventh oldest member of parliament, has in the past publicly vowed to end his tenure as a parliamentarian. He was quoted in the weekly newspaper Confidante saying that he is quitting after 40 years in politics.
Angula, who turns 71 this August, seems to have made a U-turn on serving the ruling party in parliament. “I will cross that bridge when I get there.”
He said there are many factors to consider, and one of them is the implementation of the 50/50 gender representation.
Angula is one of the most popular politicians in the party who topped the Politburo members’ list in 2012 after having been a member since 1985. He was the first minister of education before he became the PM in 2005 until 2012.
A second group edging towards the 70s included works minister Erkki Nghimtina (65), defence deputy minister Petrus Ilonga (66), youth minister Jerry Ekandjo (66), health minister Richard Kamwi (63), regional and local government minister Charles Namoloh (64), and deputy minister of home affairs and immigration Elia Kaiyamo (63).
Those turning 63 next year are foreign affairs minister Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, justice minister Utoni Nujoma, safety and security minister Immanuel Ngatjizeko, Swapo backbencher Moses Amweelo, gender equality minister Rosalia Nghidinwa and home affairs minister Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana.
Deputy PM Marco Hausiku turns 61 this year while NA deputy speaker Loide Kasingo turned 60.
Swapo secretary general Nangolo Mbumba, like Gurirab, rejected the notion that the country would be run by old politicians, saying it does not matter if there are elders as they are elected by the people.
He said the party also has young MPs, compared to the first Cabinet: “We have people who have a good record, irrespective of their ages,” Mbumba said.
He, however, said it was up to each MP to decide if they are going to quit now or risk losing out at the electoral college since it will be competition for everyone.
According to Hopwood, the upcoming electoral college could be problematic for Swapo because too many people will be competing for too few places. There are 72 parliamentary seats available but from previous Swapo performances, a candidate needed to be in the top 50 to be fairly sure of a parliamentary seat.
Hopwood said Swapo could find itself in a Catch-22 situation - with none of the groups being entirely happy with the outcome of the electoral college.
“Some aspiring MPs are sure to lose out. However, Swapo has a broad patronage network which it can use to find positions for such people e.g as special advisors, regional governors, and diplomats,” he added.
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