Walvis Bay will be under water in 50 years from now

If the projections by computer programs are correct, Namibia is headed for a stormy future within 50 years with more floods and parts of Walvis Bay being covered by the sea. Bob Scholes, a systems ecologist at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa, told The Namibian that research has shown that “all of Namibia” is expected to be “much hotter, and somewhat drier” within this century. “Storm intensity will also go up, so there is a possibility of more extreme floods,” he added. Besides all this, there will “certainly” be sea level rise issues for Walvis Bay during this time, too. Walvis Bay was specifically likened to the Nile Delta, Bangladesh and the Maldives as some of the most vulnerable areas on the planet. This is due to sea level rise because it is low-lying. According to Scholes, the tempo of global warming could lead to sea levels rising by between 0,5 and one metre. The lowest point of Walvis Bay is 0,5 metres above sea-level. Lüderitz is less vulnerable because the coast is steep and rocky there. “Compared to Bangladesh or the Nile, it is not a big global problem because relatively few people live in Walvis Bay. But it is an example that vulnerable places are not all far away – sometimes they are nearby,” he said. It is all part of climate change. The CSIR uses a whole range of global climate models (called an ensemble). “Our ensemble includes six leading global models, which we then downscale for Southern Africa using a model called the CCAM (Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model),” he explained. As for the reliability of the program, Scholes said that they never present just one answer but a full range of projections. Within those ranges the models are “quite reliable” for temperature, and have been validated for Southern Africa, said Scholes. Asked how far he trusted the program, he said “it is the best available information”. Asked if Namibia was prepared for this, Scholes said that these are not new projections. “The climate change outlook for Namibia has always been bad news. The authorities are aware, and have done several studies of their own. They participate actively in the international negotiations to try and reduce the amount of climate change,” he said. According to him, there is not much countries like Namibia can do to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, since most of those come from elsewhere in the world, but the country can urge the community of nations to be more urgent about the issue. So what can Namibians do to be prepared? Said Scholes: “Mostly, Namibians need to adapt to the climate change, which is now inescapable - housing that can deal with it, crops which are tolerant, precautions against even greater water shortages and so on. It is within the lifetime of people living now, and certainly for their children and grandchildren.” In South Africa, Scholes said, people will not be able to live in Upington after the next 50 years. -Adam Hartman